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PROJECTED Football Playoff Qualifying Field heading into Week 8

10/02/2023, 1:30pm CDT
By Travis Wilson

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It is that time of the year again, where I feel like an accountant on April 15th trying to crunch numbers and figure out the good and bad news for people. 

I have predicted every game for the last two weeks of the high school football season, thereby determining final conference records for all teams. With these predictions, I can put together a PROJECTED playoff field. To see full WIAA Playoff Regulations, please visit here.

Please note the emphasis on PROJECTED, as things can and will change between now and the end of the final game next Friday night. Even one or two games going differently amongst the nearly 400 I projected could throw things off. This is meant to give an idea of where teams may fall in divisional placement as we head to the busy final two weeks.

Based on my projections, 185 teams finish with a conference record of better than .500, all at 4-3 in conference. In addition, we project Unity to finish 3-3 in league play, as there are an odd number of teams in the state this year, with the Lakeland Conference the one league with seven teams and no paired league. In addition, as an Independent, Milwaukee Academy of Science will finish at least .500 overall and will get in before any of the teams that finish below .500 in league play.

That leaves 37 spots available for teams that finish under .500 in conference, with 42 teams finishing 3-4 in league play in our projections and eligible for those 37 spots. In the past, this is where we would bore you with all kinds of explanations of the WIAA tiebreakers, but in the interest of brevity, we will just list which tiebreaker step the teams got in below in the playoff qualifier list. To shorten things up, the better wins you have, and later on in the tiebreaker list the better wins your opponents have, the better chance you have in the tiebreaker criteria.

"Step" explanations:

  • 1b - Teams with a winning record (above .500) in conference games only.
  • 2.1 - Teams with the best W-L percentage of conference games will be added to the field.
  • 2.2 - Teams will be ranked in order of the combined won-lost percentage (conference games only) of conference opponents they have defeated. Teams whose conference opponents had the best winning percentages will be added to the playoff field. 
  • 2.3c - W-L percentage vs. playoff field as determined by steps 1, a-d.
  • 2.3d - Defeated opponents (conference wins only) overall W-L percentage.
  • 2.3e - Defeated opponents (all wins) overall W/L %

Now that we know the 224 teams PROJECTED to be in the playoffs, we can break them into divisions. The full PROJECTED divisional placements are below.

NOTE: Milwaukee South and Kingdom Prep Lutheran have opted out of the playoffs. Southwestern/East Dubuque (IL) is ineligible.


PROJECTED 2023 CUTLINES COMPARED TO PAST SEASONS

Division 2023* 2022 2021 2020^ 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
D1 Low Enrollment 1366 1336 1445 N/A 1492 1360 1422 1449 1445 1418 1421 1389 1301 1331 1360 1405
D2 Low Enrollment 1022 984 991 N/A 1038 957 966 953 937 932 936 922 841 878 878 919
D3 Low Enrollment 610 592 591 N/A 628 543 540 571 561 528 531 544 504 508 513 557
D4 Low Enrollment 429 427 419 N/A 423 398 367 397 393 345 358 362 352 359 336 353
D5 Low Enrollment 305 311 298 N/A 299 271 261 290 279 245 266 253 255 252 238 252
D6 Low Enrollment 215 216 207 N/A 197 197 194 196 202 194 197 200 194 184 181 195
* - Projected
^-no standard playoffs

PROJECTED FOOTBALL PLAYOFF QUALIFYING FIELD

Team FB Enroll Conference Projected Div. InStep
Middleton 2357 Big Eight 1 1b
Kenosha Indian Trail 2245 Southeast 1 1b
Oak Creek 2170 Southeast 1 1b
Madison Memorial 2122 Big Eight 1 1b
Stevens Point 2105 Valley Football Association 1 1b
Arrowhead 2076 Classic Eight 1 1b
Fond du Lac 2038 Fox Valley Association 1 1b
Milwaukee Pulaski/Carmen South/Carmen SE 2024 Milwaukee City-Blackbourn 1 1b
Milwaukee Marshall/Carmen NW/Milw Juneau/Milw Languages 2022 Milwaukee City-Richardson 1 1b
Neenah 1979 Fox Valley Association 1 1b
Bay Port 1915 FRCC-North 1 1b
Milwaukee Hamilton/Audubon Tech 1895 Milwaukee City-Richardson 1 2.2
Racine Case 1892 Southeast 1 1b
Milwaukee Riverside/Golda Meir 1829 Milwaukee City-Richardson 1 1b
D.C. Everest 1824 Valley Football Association 1 1b
Verona 1801 Big Eight 1 1b
Hudson 1800 Big Rivers 1 1b
Marquette 1794 Greater Metro 1 1b
Kenosha Bradford 1765 Southeast 1 2.3d
Sheboygan North 1716 FRCC-South 1 1b
Janesville Craig 1684 Big Eight 1 2.3e
Muskego 1683 Classic Eight 1 1b
Appleton North 1664 Fox Valley Association 1 1b
Mukwonago 1619 Classic Eight 1 1b
Kimberly 1595 Fox Valley Association 1 1b
Franklin 1570 Southeast 1 1b
Sussex Hamilton 1551 Greater Metro 1 1b
Wausau West 1535 Valley Football Association 1 1b
De Pere 1457 FRCC-North 1 1b
Chippewa Falls 1454 Big Rivers 1 2.3c
Janesville Parker 1429 Big Eight 1 1b
Milwaukee Reagan 1366 Milwaukee City-Richardson 1 1b
Sun Prairie West 1347 Badger-Large 2 1b
Sheboygan South 1332 FRCC-South 2 2.3d
Sun Prairie East 1329 Badger-Large 2 1b
Badger 1320 Southern Lakes 2 1b
Waunakee 1309 Badger-Large 2 1b
Menomonee Falls 1292 Greater Metro 2 1b
Milwaukee King 1284 Milwaukee City-Richardson 2 1b
Hartford Union 1281 North Shore 2 1b
Brookfield Central 1270 Greater Metro 2 1b
Homestead 1261 North Shore 2 1b
Kaukauna 1253 Fox Valley Association 2 1b
Kettle Moraine 1251 Classic Eight 2 1b
Marshfield 1250 Valley Football Association 2 2.3d
Hortonville 1232 Valley Football Association 2 1b
Westosha Central 1220 Southern Lakes 2 1b
Holmen 1215 Mississippi Valley 2 1b
Waukesha West 1194 Classic Eight 2 2.3c
Greenfield 1163 Woodland 2 1b
Elkhorn Area 1142 Southern Lakes 2 1b
Pulaski 1141 FRCC-North 2 1b
Monona Grove 1127 Badger-Small 2 1b
Beaver Dam 1124 Badger-Large 2 1b
River Falls 1114 Big Rivers 2 1b
New Richmond 1112 Big Rivers 2 1b
DeForest 1093 Badger-Small 2 1b
West De Pere 1087 FRCC-North 2 1b
Cedarburg 1087 North Shore 2 1b
Nicolet 1086 North Shore 2 2.2
Slinger 1052 North Shore 2 1b
La Crosse Central 1029 Mississippi Valley 2 1b
Wauwatosa West 1028 Parkland 2 1b
Menomonie 1022 Big Rivers 2 1b
Burlington 1001 Southern Lakes 3 2.3d
Ashwaubenon 989 FRCC-North 3 2.2
Menasha 966 FRCC-South 3 1b
Waterford 958 Southern Lakes 3 1b
Wisconsin Lutheran 938 Woodland 3 1b
Greendale 931 Woodland 3 1b
Onalaska 923 Mississippi Valley 3 1b
Mount Horeb/Barneveld 920 Badger-Small 3 1b
Baraboo 919 Mississippi Valley 3 1b
Pewaukee 874 Parkland 3 1b
Stoughton 868 Badger-Small 3 2.2
Whitnall 826 Woodland 3 2.3d
Port Washington 815 East Central 3 1b
Milwaukee Washington/Fuller Collegiate 777 Milwaukee City-Blackbourn 3 1b
McFarland 774 Rock Valley 3 1b
Obama SCTE 756 Milwaukee City-Blackbourn 3 2.2
Rhinelander 747 Great Northern 3 2.2
Plymouth 746 East Central 3 1b
Monroe 742 Rock Valley 3 1b
Fox Valley Lutheran 742 North Eastern 3 1b
Medford 738 Great Northern 3 1b
Notre Dame 727 FRCC-South 3 1b
Lakeland 717 Great Northern 3 1b
Rice Lake 714 Middle Border 3 1b
Grafton 713 Woodland 3 1b
New Berlin Eisenhower 711 Parkland 3 2.3d
Hayward/Lac Courte Oreilles 709 Great Northern 3 2.2
New Berlin West 699 Parkland 3 1b
Antigo 687 Great Northern 3 2.2
Martin Luther 649 Metro Classic 3 1b
Mosinee 621 Great Northern 3 1b
Luxemburg-Casco 610 North Eastern 3 1b
West Salem 607 Coulee 4 1b
Jefferson 604 Rock Valley 4 1b
Wisconsin Dells 596 South Central 4 1b
Waupaca 589 Bay 4 2.2
Catholic Memorial 576 Parkland 4 1b
Kewaskum 572 East Central 4 1b
Kohler/Sheboygan Christian/Sheboygan Lutheran 560 Eastern Wisconsin 4 1b
Altoona 560 Coulee 4 2.3d
Kettle Moraine Lutheran 553 East Central 4 2.3c
Winneconne 551 Bay 4 1b
Edgerton 537 Rock Valley 4 2.3d
Saint Francis 522 Midwest Classic 4 1b
Oconto Falls 521 Northwoods 4 1b
Ellsworth 518 Middle Border 4 2.3c
Saint Croix Central 514 Middle Border 4 1b
Little Chute 514 North Eastern 4 2.2
Platteville 513 SWC 4 1b
Evansville 507 Rock Valley 4 1b
Baldwin-Woodville 506 Middle Border 4 1b
Lakeside Lutheran 506 Capitol 4 1b
Lake Mills 491 Capitol 4 1b
Two Rivers 480 Eastern Wisconsin 4 1b
Berlin 474 East Central 4 1b
Mauston 474 South Central 4 1b
Racine St. Catherine’s 472 Metro Classic 4 1b
Campbellsport 470 Flyway 4 1b
Somerset 470 Middle Border 4 1b
Xavier 468 Bay 4 1b
Kiel 453 Eastern Wisconsin 4 1b
Lodi 451 Capitol 4 1b
Adams-Friendship 432 South Central 4 1b
Bloomer 429 Heart O'North 4 1b
New Glarus/Monticello 421 Capitol 5 2.3c
Clintonville 412 Northwoods 5 1b
Brodhead/Juda 411 SWC 5 1b
Watertown Luther Prep 407 Metro Classic 5 1b
Wrightstown 402 North Eastern 5 1b
Northwestern 400 Heart O'North 5 1b
Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau 400 Coulee 5 1b
Milwaukee Academy of Science 395 Independent 5 2.1
Sturgeon Bay 394 Packerland 5 1b
Columbus 390 Capitol 5 1b
Wautoma 381 South Central 5 2.2
Horicon/Hustisford 380 Eastern Suburban 5 1b
Mayville 375 Flyway 5 1b
Clinton 359 Eastern Suburban 5 2.3d
Saint Croix Falls 345 Heart O'North 5 1b
Amherst 344 CWC-Large 5 1b
Prairie du Chien 343 SWC 5 1b
Brillion 342 Eastern Wisconsin 5 2.3d
Stanley-Boyd 337 Cloverbelt 5 1b
Wittenberg-Birnamwood 336 CWC-Large 5 1b
Lake Country Lutheran 335 Metro Classic 5 1b
Brookfield Academy 334 Midwest Classic 5 1b
Neillsville/Granton 331 Cloverbelt 5 1b
Oostburg 331 Big East 5 1b
Southern Door 323 Packerland 5 1b
Lomira 323 Flyway 5 2.3d
Winnebago Lutheran 319 Flyway 5 1b
New Holstein 319 Eastern Wisconsin 5 1b
Colby 309 Marawood 5 1b
Aquinas 307 Coulee 5 1b
Durand-Arkansaw 307 Cloverbelt 5 2.3d
Westby 305 Coulee 5 1b
Racine Lutheran 303 Midwest Classic 6 1b
Cumberland 300 Heart O'North 6 1b
Kewaunee 298 Packerland 6 1b
Lancaster 295 SWC 6 1b
Unity 295 Lakeland 6 2.1
Marshall 292 Eastern Suburban 6 1b
Cedar Grove-Belgium 291 Big East 6 1b
Weyauwega-Fremont 291 CWC-Large 6 1b
Cameron 284 Heart O'North 6 1b
Howards Grove 283 Big East 6 1b
Oconto 282 Packerland 6 2.3d
Darlington 280 SWAL 6 1b
Belleville 279 SWAL 6 2.3d
Cuba City 273 SWAL 6 1b
Stratford 272 CWC-Large 6 1b
Cambridge 266 Eastern Suburban 6 1b
Saint Mary's Springs 263 Flyway 6 1b
Bonduel 262 Packerland 6 1b
Cadott 260 Dunn-St. Croix 6 1b
Waterloo 259 Eastern Suburban 6 1b
Grantsburg 255 Lakeland 6 1b
Mondovi 250 Cloverbelt 6 1b
Ladysmith 246 Lakeland 6 1b
Mineral Point 245 SWAL 6 1b
Abbotsford 244 Marawood 6 1b
Crandon 239 Northwoods 6 1b
Kenosha St. Joseph Catholic 229 Midwest Classic 6 1b
Auburndale 229 Marawood 6 1b
Coleman 229 Northwoods 6 1b
Luther 228 Scenic Bluffs 6 1b
Melrose-Mindoro 223 Dairyland 6 1b
Crivitz 215 Northwoods 6 1b
Boyceville 212 Dunn-St. Croix 7 1b
Regis 210 Cloverbelt 7 1b
Black Hawk/Warren, IL 204 Six Rivers 7 1b
Bangor 203 Scenic Bluffs 7 1b
Edgar 201 Marawood 7 1b
Spring Valley 198 Dunn-St. Croix 7 1b
Randolph 198 Trailways 7 1b
Iola-Scandinavia 197 CWC-Small 7 1b
Blair-Taylor 193 Dairyland 7 1b
Reedsville 192 Big East 7 1b
Hurley 192 Lakeland 7 1b
Cashton 191 Scenic Bluffs 7 1b
Eleva-Strum 187 Dairyland 7 1b
Johnson Creek 180 Trailways 7 1b
Wauzeka-Steuben/Seneca 180 Ridge & Valley 7 1b
Lourdes Academy 178 Trailways 7 1b
Elmwood/Plum City 178 Dunn-St. Croix 7 1b
Cochrane-Fountain City 175 Dairyland 7 1b
River Ridge 175 Six Rivers 7 1b
Pacelli 169 CWC-Small 7 2.2
Pittsville 168 Marawood 7 2.2
Potosi/Cassville 164 Six Rivers 7 1b
Hillsboro 163 Ridge & Valley 7 1b
Loyal 163 CWC-Small 7 2.2
New Lisbon 156 Scenic Bluffs 7 1b
Royall 154 Scenic Bluffs 7 2.2
Pepin/Alma 149 Dairyland 7 1b
Assumption 139 CWC-Small 7 2.2
Ithaca 133 Ridge & Valley 7 2.2
Turtle Lake 129 Dunn-St. Croix 7 1b
Highland 105 Ridge & Valley 7 1b
Cambria-Friesland 100 Trailways 7 1b

About the Author

Travis Wilson serves as the WisSports.net General Manager, Football Editor, and contributing writer for other parts of the site. Wilson was selected as part of the Sports 40 Under 40 list by Coach & AD Magazine and the National High School Athletic Coaches Association for 2019. The Wisconsin Football Coaches Association (WFCA) named Travis the 2015 recipient of the Dave McClain Distinguished Service Award. He currently serves on the WFCA Executive Board and is a member of the Executive Board of the Wisconsin Basketball Coaches Association. A graduate of Richland Center High School and Mount Mercy College in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Travis was a three-sport athlete in high school (football, baseball, basketball), inducted to the Richland Center High School Hall of Fame in 2023, and currently resides in Reedsburg. You can follow him on Twitter at @travisWSN.

For the latest and most up to date football news and recruiting information, follow Travis on Twitter @travisWSN. Email story ideas, recruiting info, etc. to Travis at travis(at)wissports.net.

Tag(s): News Archive  News  Travis Wilson  Football Playoffs