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It is that time of the year again, where I feel like an accountant on April 15th trying to crunch numbers and figure out the good and bad news for people.
I have predicted every game for the last two weeks of the high school football season, thereby determining final conference records for all teams. With these predictions, I can put together a PROJECTED playoff field. To see full WIAA Playoff Regulations, please visit here.
Please note the emphasis on PROJECTED, as things can and will change between now and the end of the final game next Friday night. Even one or two games going differently amongst the nearly 400 I projected could throw things off. This is meant to give an idea of where teams may fall in divisional placement as we head to the busy final two weeks.
Based on my projections, 185 teams finish with a conference record of better than .500, all at 4-3 in conference. In addition, we project Unity to finish 3-3 in league play, as there are an odd number of teams in the state this year, with the Lakeland Conference the one league with seven teams and no paired league. In addition, as an Independent, Milwaukee Academy of Science will finish at least .500 overall and will get in before any of the teams that finish below .500 in league play.
That leaves 37 spots available for teams that finish under .500 in conference, with 42 teams finishing 3-4 in league play in our projections and eligible for those 37 spots. In the past, this is where we would bore you with all kinds of explanations of the WIAA tiebreakers, but in the interest of brevity, we will just list which tiebreaker step the teams got in below in the playoff qualifier list. To shorten things up, the better wins you have, and later on in the tiebreaker list the better wins your opponents have, the better chance you have in the tiebreaker criteria.
"Step" explanations:
Now that we know the 224 teams PROJECTED to be in the playoffs, we can break them into divisions. The full PROJECTED divisional placements are below.
NOTE: Milwaukee South and Kingdom Prep Lutheran have opted out of the playoffs. Southwestern/East Dubuque (IL) is ineligible.
Division | 2023* | 2022 | 2021 | 2020^ | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D1 Low Enrollment | 1366 | 1336 | 1445 | N/A | 1492 | 1360 | 1422 | 1449 | 1445 | 1418 | 1421 | 1389 | 1301 | 1331 | 1360 | 1405 |
D2 Low Enrollment | 1022 | 984 | 991 | N/A | 1038 | 957 | 966 | 953 | 937 | 932 | 936 | 922 | 841 | 878 | 878 | 919 |
D3 Low Enrollment | 610 | 592 | 591 | N/A | 628 | 543 | 540 | 571 | 561 | 528 | 531 | 544 | 504 | 508 | 513 | 557 |
D4 Low Enrollment | 429 | 427 | 419 | N/A | 423 | 398 | 367 | 397 | 393 | 345 | 358 | 362 | 352 | 359 | 336 | 353 |
D5 Low Enrollment | 305 | 311 | 298 | N/A | 299 | 271 | 261 | 290 | 279 | 245 | 266 | 253 | 255 | 252 | 238 | 252 |
D6 Low Enrollment | 215 | 216 | 207 | N/A | 197 | 197 | 194 | 196 | 202 | 194 | 197 | 200 | 194 | 184 | 181 | 195 |
* - Projected | ||||||||||||||||
^-no standard playoffs |
Team | FB Enroll | Conference | Projected Div. | InStep |
---|---|---|---|---|
Middleton | 2357 | Big Eight | 1 | 1b |
Kenosha Indian Trail | 2245 | Southeast | 1 | 1b |
Oak Creek | 2170 | Southeast | 1 | 1b |
Madison Memorial | 2122 | Big Eight | 1 | 1b |
Stevens Point | 2105 | Valley Football Association | 1 | 1b |
Arrowhead | 2076 | Classic Eight | 1 | 1b |
Fond du Lac | 2038 | Fox Valley Association | 1 | 1b |
Milwaukee Pulaski/Carmen South/Carmen SE | 2024 | Milwaukee City-Blackbourn | 1 | 1b |
Milwaukee Marshall/Carmen NW/Milw Juneau/Milw Languages | 2022 | Milwaukee City-Richardson | 1 | 1b |
Neenah | 1979 | Fox Valley Association | 1 | 1b |
Bay Port | 1915 | FRCC-North | 1 | 1b |
Milwaukee Hamilton/Audubon Tech | 1895 | Milwaukee City-Richardson | 1 | 2.2 |
Racine Case | 1892 | Southeast | 1 | 1b |
Milwaukee Riverside/Golda Meir | 1829 | Milwaukee City-Richardson | 1 | 1b |
D.C. Everest | 1824 | Valley Football Association | 1 | 1b |
Verona | 1801 | Big Eight | 1 | 1b |
Hudson | 1800 | Big Rivers | 1 | 1b |
Marquette | 1794 | Greater Metro | 1 | 1b |
Kenosha Bradford | 1765 | Southeast | 1 | 2.3d |
Sheboygan North | 1716 | FRCC-South | 1 | 1b |
Janesville Craig | 1684 | Big Eight | 1 | 2.3e |
Muskego | 1683 | Classic Eight | 1 | 1b |
Appleton North | 1664 | Fox Valley Association | 1 | 1b |
Mukwonago | 1619 | Classic Eight | 1 | 1b |
Kimberly | 1595 | Fox Valley Association | 1 | 1b |
Franklin | 1570 | Southeast | 1 | 1b |
Sussex Hamilton | 1551 | Greater Metro | 1 | 1b |
Wausau West | 1535 | Valley Football Association | 1 | 1b |
De Pere | 1457 | FRCC-North | 1 | 1b |
Chippewa Falls | 1454 | Big Rivers | 1 | 2.3c |
Janesville Parker | 1429 | Big Eight | 1 | 1b |
Milwaukee Reagan | 1366 | Milwaukee City-Richardson | 1 | 1b |
Sun Prairie West | 1347 | Badger-Large | 2 | 1b |
Sheboygan South | 1332 | FRCC-South | 2 | 2.3d |
Sun Prairie East | 1329 | Badger-Large | 2 | 1b |
Badger | 1320 | Southern Lakes | 2 | 1b |
Waunakee | 1309 | Badger-Large | 2 | 1b |
Menomonee Falls | 1292 | Greater Metro | 2 | 1b |
Milwaukee King | 1284 | Milwaukee City-Richardson | 2 | 1b |
Hartford Union | 1281 | North Shore | 2 | 1b |
Brookfield Central | 1270 | Greater Metro | 2 | 1b |
Homestead | 1261 | North Shore | 2 | 1b |
Kaukauna | 1253 | Fox Valley Association | 2 | 1b |
Kettle Moraine | 1251 | Classic Eight | 2 | 1b |
Marshfield | 1250 | Valley Football Association | 2 | 2.3d |
Hortonville | 1232 | Valley Football Association | 2 | 1b |
Westosha Central | 1220 | Southern Lakes | 2 | 1b |
Holmen | 1215 | Mississippi Valley | 2 | 1b |
Waukesha West | 1194 | Classic Eight | 2 | 2.3c |
Greenfield | 1163 | Woodland | 2 | 1b |
Elkhorn Area | 1142 | Southern Lakes | 2 | 1b |
Pulaski | 1141 | FRCC-North | 2 | 1b |
Monona Grove | 1127 | Badger-Small | 2 | 1b |
Beaver Dam | 1124 | Badger-Large | 2 | 1b |
River Falls | 1114 | Big Rivers | 2 | 1b |
New Richmond | 1112 | Big Rivers | 2 | 1b |
DeForest | 1093 | Badger-Small | 2 | 1b |
West De Pere | 1087 | FRCC-North | 2 | 1b |
Cedarburg | 1087 | North Shore | 2 | 1b |
Nicolet | 1086 | North Shore | 2 | 2.2 |
Slinger | 1052 | North Shore | 2 | 1b |
La Crosse Central | 1029 | Mississippi Valley | 2 | 1b |
Wauwatosa West | 1028 | Parkland | 2 | 1b |
Menomonie | 1022 | Big Rivers | 2 | 1b |
Burlington | 1001 | Southern Lakes | 3 | 2.3d |
Ashwaubenon | 989 | FRCC-North | 3 | 2.2 |
Menasha | 966 | FRCC-South | 3 | 1b |
Waterford | 958 | Southern Lakes | 3 | 1b |
Wisconsin Lutheran | 938 | Woodland | 3 | 1b |
Greendale | 931 | Woodland | 3 | 1b |
Onalaska | 923 | Mississippi Valley | 3 | 1b |
Mount Horeb/Barneveld | 920 | Badger-Small | 3 | 1b |
Baraboo | 919 | Mississippi Valley | 3 | 1b |
Pewaukee | 874 | Parkland | 3 | 1b |
Stoughton | 868 | Badger-Small | 3 | 2.2 |
Whitnall | 826 | Woodland | 3 | 2.3d |
Port Washington | 815 | East Central | 3 | 1b |
Milwaukee Washington/Fuller Collegiate | 777 | Milwaukee City-Blackbourn | 3 | 1b |
McFarland | 774 | Rock Valley | 3 | 1b |
Obama SCTE | 756 | Milwaukee City-Blackbourn | 3 | 2.2 |
Rhinelander | 747 | Great Northern | 3 | 2.2 |
Plymouth | 746 | East Central | 3 | 1b |
Monroe | 742 | Rock Valley | 3 | 1b |
Fox Valley Lutheran | 742 | North Eastern | 3 | 1b |
Medford | 738 | Great Northern | 3 | 1b |
Notre Dame | 727 | FRCC-South | 3 | 1b |
Lakeland | 717 | Great Northern | 3 | 1b |
Rice Lake | 714 | Middle Border | 3 | 1b |
Grafton | 713 | Woodland | 3 | 1b |
New Berlin Eisenhower | 711 | Parkland | 3 | 2.3d |
Hayward/Lac Courte Oreilles | 709 | Great Northern | 3 | 2.2 |
New Berlin West | 699 | Parkland | 3 | 1b |
Antigo | 687 | Great Northern | 3 | 2.2 |
Martin Luther | 649 | Metro Classic | 3 | 1b |
Mosinee | 621 | Great Northern | 3 | 1b |
Luxemburg-Casco | 610 | North Eastern | 3 | 1b |
West Salem | 607 | Coulee | 4 | 1b |
Jefferson | 604 | Rock Valley | 4 | 1b |
Wisconsin Dells | 596 | South Central | 4 | 1b |
Waupaca | 589 | Bay | 4 | 2.2 |
Catholic Memorial | 576 | Parkland | 4 | 1b |
Kewaskum | 572 | East Central | 4 | 1b |
Kohler/Sheboygan Christian/Sheboygan Lutheran | 560 | Eastern Wisconsin | 4 | 1b |
Altoona | 560 | Coulee | 4 | 2.3d |
Kettle Moraine Lutheran | 553 | East Central | 4 | 2.3c |
Winneconne | 551 | Bay | 4 | 1b |
Edgerton | 537 | Rock Valley | 4 | 2.3d |
Saint Francis | 522 | Midwest Classic | 4 | 1b |
Oconto Falls | 521 | Northwoods | 4 | 1b |
Ellsworth | 518 | Middle Border | 4 | 2.3c |
Saint Croix Central | 514 | Middle Border | 4 | 1b |
Little Chute | 514 | North Eastern | 4 | 2.2 |
Platteville | 513 | SWC | 4 | 1b |
Evansville | 507 | Rock Valley | 4 | 1b |
Baldwin-Woodville | 506 | Middle Border | 4 | 1b |
Lakeside Lutheran | 506 | Capitol | 4 | 1b |
Lake Mills | 491 | Capitol | 4 | 1b |
Two Rivers | 480 | Eastern Wisconsin | 4 | 1b |
Berlin | 474 | East Central | 4 | 1b |
Mauston | 474 | South Central | 4 | 1b |
Racine St. Catherine’s | 472 | Metro Classic | 4 | 1b |
Campbellsport | 470 | Flyway | 4 | 1b |
Somerset | 470 | Middle Border | 4 | 1b |
Xavier | 468 | Bay | 4 | 1b |
Kiel | 453 | Eastern Wisconsin | 4 | 1b |
Lodi | 451 | Capitol | 4 | 1b |
Adams-Friendship | 432 | South Central | 4 | 1b |
Bloomer | 429 | Heart O'North | 4 | 1b |
New Glarus/Monticello | 421 | Capitol | 5 | 2.3c |
Clintonville | 412 | Northwoods | 5 | 1b |
Brodhead/Juda | 411 | SWC | 5 | 1b |
Watertown Luther Prep | 407 | Metro Classic | 5 | 1b |
Wrightstown | 402 | North Eastern | 5 | 1b |
Northwestern | 400 | Heart O'North | 5 | 1b |
Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau | 400 | Coulee | 5 | 1b |
Milwaukee Academy of Science | 395 | Independent | 5 | 2.1 |
Sturgeon Bay | 394 | Packerland | 5 | 1b |
Columbus | 390 | Capitol | 5 | 1b |
Wautoma | 381 | South Central | 5 | 2.2 |
Horicon/Hustisford | 380 | Eastern Suburban | 5 | 1b |
Mayville | 375 | Flyway | 5 | 1b |
Clinton | 359 | Eastern Suburban | 5 | 2.3d |
Saint Croix Falls | 345 | Heart O'North | 5 | 1b |
Amherst | 344 | CWC-Large | 5 | 1b |
Prairie du Chien | 343 | SWC | 5 | 1b |
Brillion | 342 | Eastern Wisconsin | 5 | 2.3d |
Stanley-Boyd | 337 | Cloverbelt | 5 | 1b |
Wittenberg-Birnamwood | 336 | CWC-Large | 5 | 1b |
Lake Country Lutheran | 335 | Metro Classic | 5 | 1b |
Brookfield Academy | 334 | Midwest Classic | 5 | 1b |
Neillsville/Granton | 331 | Cloverbelt | 5 | 1b |
Oostburg | 331 | Big East | 5 | 1b |
Southern Door | 323 | Packerland | 5 | 1b |
Lomira | 323 | Flyway | 5 | 2.3d |
Winnebago Lutheran | 319 | Flyway | 5 | 1b |
New Holstein | 319 | Eastern Wisconsin | 5 | 1b |
Colby | 309 | Marawood | 5 | 1b |
Aquinas | 307 | Coulee | 5 | 1b |
Durand-Arkansaw | 307 | Cloverbelt | 5 | 2.3d |
Westby | 305 | Coulee | 5 | 1b |
Racine Lutheran | 303 | Midwest Classic | 6 | 1b |
Cumberland | 300 | Heart O'North | 6 | 1b |
Kewaunee | 298 | Packerland | 6 | 1b |
Lancaster | 295 | SWC | 6 | 1b |
Unity | 295 | Lakeland | 6 | 2.1 |
Marshall | 292 | Eastern Suburban | 6 | 1b |
Cedar Grove-Belgium | 291 | Big East | 6 | 1b |
Weyauwega-Fremont | 291 | CWC-Large | 6 | 1b |
Cameron | 284 | Heart O'North | 6 | 1b |
Howards Grove | 283 | Big East | 6 | 1b |
Oconto | 282 | Packerland | 6 | 2.3d |
Darlington | 280 | SWAL | 6 | 1b |
Belleville | 279 | SWAL | 6 | 2.3d |
Cuba City | 273 | SWAL | 6 | 1b |
Stratford | 272 | CWC-Large | 6 | 1b |
Cambridge | 266 | Eastern Suburban | 6 | 1b |
Saint Mary's Springs | 263 | Flyway | 6 | 1b |
Bonduel | 262 | Packerland | 6 | 1b |
Cadott | 260 | Dunn-St. Croix | 6 | 1b |
Waterloo | 259 | Eastern Suburban | 6 | 1b |
Grantsburg | 255 | Lakeland | 6 | 1b |
Mondovi | 250 | Cloverbelt | 6 | 1b |
Ladysmith | 246 | Lakeland | 6 | 1b |
Mineral Point | 245 | SWAL | 6 | 1b |
Abbotsford | 244 | Marawood | 6 | 1b |
Crandon | 239 | Northwoods | 6 | 1b |
Kenosha St. Joseph Catholic | 229 | Midwest Classic | 6 | 1b |
Auburndale | 229 | Marawood | 6 | 1b |
Coleman | 229 | Northwoods | 6 | 1b |
Luther | 228 | Scenic Bluffs | 6 | 1b |
Melrose-Mindoro | 223 | Dairyland | 6 | 1b |
Crivitz | 215 | Northwoods | 6 | 1b |
Boyceville | 212 | Dunn-St. Croix | 7 | 1b |
Regis | 210 | Cloverbelt | 7 | 1b |
Black Hawk/Warren, IL | 204 | Six Rivers | 7 | 1b |
Bangor | 203 | Scenic Bluffs | 7 | 1b |
Edgar | 201 | Marawood | 7 | 1b |
Spring Valley | 198 | Dunn-St. Croix | 7 | 1b |
Randolph | 198 | Trailways | 7 | 1b |
Iola-Scandinavia | 197 | CWC-Small | 7 | 1b |
Blair-Taylor | 193 | Dairyland | 7 | 1b |
Reedsville | 192 | Big East | 7 | 1b |
Hurley | 192 | Lakeland | 7 | 1b |
Cashton | 191 | Scenic Bluffs | 7 | 1b |
Eleva-Strum | 187 | Dairyland | 7 | 1b |
Johnson Creek | 180 | Trailways | 7 | 1b |
Wauzeka-Steuben/Seneca | 180 | Ridge & Valley | 7 | 1b |
Lourdes Academy | 178 | Trailways | 7 | 1b |
Elmwood/Plum City | 178 | Dunn-St. Croix | 7 | 1b |
Cochrane-Fountain City | 175 | Dairyland | 7 | 1b |
River Ridge | 175 | Six Rivers | 7 | 1b |
Pacelli | 169 | CWC-Small | 7 | 2.2 |
Pittsville | 168 | Marawood | 7 | 2.2 |
Potosi/Cassville | 164 | Six Rivers | 7 | 1b |
Hillsboro | 163 | Ridge & Valley | 7 | 1b |
Loyal | 163 | CWC-Small | 7 | 2.2 |
New Lisbon | 156 | Scenic Bluffs | 7 | 1b |
Royall | 154 | Scenic Bluffs | 7 | 2.2 |
Pepin/Alma | 149 | Dairyland | 7 | 1b |
Assumption | 139 | CWC-Small | 7 | 2.2 |
Ithaca | 133 | Ridge & Valley | 7 | 2.2 |
Turtle Lake | 129 | Dunn-St. Croix | 7 | 1b |
Highland | 105 | Ridge & Valley | 7 | 1b |
Cambria-Friesland | 100 | Trailways | 7 | 1b |
Travis Wilson serves as the WisSports.net General Manager, Football Editor, and contributing writer for other parts of the site. Wilson was selected as part of the Sports 40 Under 40 list by Coach & AD Magazine and the National High School Athletic Coaches Association for 2019. The Wisconsin Football Coaches Association (WFCA) named Travis the 2015 recipient of the Dave McClain Distinguished Service Award. He currently serves on the WFCA Executive Board and is a member of the Executive Board of the Wisconsin Basketball Coaches Association. A graduate of Richland Center High School and Mount Mercy College in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Travis was a three-sport athlete in high school (football, baseball, basketball), inducted to the Richland Center High School Hall of Fame in 2023, and currently resides in Reedsburg. You can follow him on Twitter at @travisWSN.
For the latest and most up to date football news and recruiting information, follow Travis on Twitter @travisWSN. Email story ideas, recruiting info, etc. to Travis at travis(at)wissports.net.